Top Hurricane Scientist: ‘Katrina Would Not Have Been As Intense In 1980′
Originally published September 5, 2008 on the ThinkProgress Wonk Room.
Massachusetts Institute of Technology climatologist Kerry Emanuel says that he would be “surprised” if global warming “were not a big factor” in intensifying Hurricane Katrina’s destructive power. Katrina, the costliest and third deadliest hurricane in United States history, intensified to Category Five strength, with peak sustained winds over 170 mph, over extremely warm waters in the Gulf of Mexico before its record storm surge devastated the Gulf Coast.
Emanuel compared the meteorological conditions in which Hurricane Katrina developed in 2005 to the existing conditions twenty-five years earlier in 1980. Using his model of tropical storm potential intensity, which uses at determining factors such as sea and air temperature and wind shear, he found that Katrina would have been significantly weaker twenty-five years earlier. When asked how to characterize his findings, Emanuel replied:
I think it is correct to say that Katrina would not have been as intense in 1980. What part of that to attribute to global warming is tricky, but I would be surprised if it were not a big factor.
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| NCEP/NCAR Re-analysis potential intensity for 1980 and 2005 (Emanuel, 2008) |
Dr. Emanuel, one of Time Magazine’s 100 Influential People of 2006, is the author of dozens of influential papers on tropical meteorology and climatology, including the 2005 Nature paper, “Increasing destructiveness of tropical cyclones over the past 30 years.” Dr. Emanuel has authored the popular science books Divine Wind: The History and Science of Hurricanes and What We Know About Climate Change, and is profiled in ScienceProgress editor Chris Mooney’s book, Storm World: Hurricanes, Politics, and the Battle Over Global Warming.
Senate Democrats Release Agenda For "Net-Zero Emissions" Clean Economy By 2050
The Senate Democrats’ Select Committee on the Climate Crisis has released a 263-page report detailing a “clean economy” agenda with “bold climate solutions.” Entitled “The Case for Climate Action: Building a Clean Economy for the American People,” the report, which repeatedly emphasizes economic growth and job creation, was developed by the ten-member committee chaired by Sen. Brian Schatz (D-Hawaii).
Legislation must now be developed to meet the overarching goals of the committee:
- Reduce U.S. emissions rapidly to help achieve 100 percent global net-zero emissions no later than 2050.
- Stimulate economic growth by increasing federal spending on climate action to at least 2 percent of GDP annually—and ensure that at least 40 percent of the benefits from these investments help communities of color and low-income, deindustrialized, and disadvantaged communities.
- Create at least 10 million new jobs.
The report, while largely in the spirit of the Green New Deal platform – in particular in the listing of recommendations from environmental justice leaders – avoids any mention of that phrase. Several of the photographs in the report are of rallies and marches of Green New Deal advocates.
Unlike most Green New Deal advocates, the report makes space for “safer nuclear power” and “fossil generation paired with carbon capture and storage.” “Carbon capture and removal technologies are an essential supplement to decarbonization,” the report argues in an extended section.
An entire chapter of the report is dedicated to “Dark Money” – specifically, the “undue influence from the leaders of giant fossil fuel corporations” who “used weak American laws and regulations governing election spending, lobbying, and giving to advocacy groups to mount a massive covert operation” to “spread disinformation about climate change and obstruct climate action.”In order to advance bold climate legislation, we must expose the covert influence of wealthy fossil fuel executives, trade associations, and front groups that have done everything possible to obstruct climate action.
The report credits the U.S. Supreme Court’s Citizen United decision with allowing “fossil fuel political power to effectively capture Republican elected officials nationwide.”
In addition to ten hearings, the committee held twelve in-depth hearings with advocates, four of which were exclusively with corporate executives (utilities, health care, insurance, and banks). Two meetings were held with international representatives (a United Nations representative and European central bankers). Two meetings were with union officials (one included environmentalists); two were with environmental justice activists and mainstream environmentalists; one was with youth climate activists. The last meeting was with surfers and surfing industry representatives.
Notably, the committee did not meet with any climate scientists in academia.
In addition to Schatz, the other members of the committee are U.S. Senators Sheldon Whitehouse (D-R.I.), Jeff Merkley (D-Ore.), Michael Bennet (D-Colo.), Tammy Baldwin (D-Wis.), Martin Heinrich (D-N.M.), Ed Markey (D-Mass.), Tammy Duckworth (D-Ill.), Catherine Cortez Masto (D-Nev.), and Tina Smith (D-Minn.).
Hearings:
A Blueprint for Success: U.S. Climate Action at the Local Level (July 2019)
- Mayor Keisha Lance Bottoms, Atlanta, GA
- Mayor Kirk Caldwell, Honolulu, HI
- Mayor Melvin Carter, Saint Paul, MN
- Mayor William Peduto, Pittsburgh, PA
- Mayor Ted Wheeler, Portland, OR
- Dr. Frank Luntz, founder and CEO, FIL, Inc.
- Kiera O’Brien, vice president of Students for Carbon Dividends
- Nick Huey, founder of the Climate Campaign
- Mike Richter, president of Brightcore Energy; Hall of Fame goaltender for the New York Rangers
- Jeremy Jones, founder of Protect Our Winters; professional snowboarder
- Caroline Gleich, professional ski mountaineer and adventurer
- Tommy Caldwell, professional climber
- Dr. Justin Farrell, professor, Yale University School of Forestry and Environmental Studies
- Dr. Naomi Oreskes, professor, Harvard University
- Morton Rosenberg, congressional scholar, Project on Government Oversight
- Dylan Tanner, executive director & co-founder, InfluenceMap
- Dr. Cecilia Martinez, co-founder and executive director, Center for Earth, Energy, and Democracy
- Michele Roberts, national co-coordinator, Environmental Justice Health Alliance for Chemical Policy Reform
- Celeste Flores, outreach director, Faith in Place
- Alice Hill, senior fellow for climate change policy, Council on Foreign Relations
- Laura Lightbody, project director, Pew Charitable Trusts Flood-Prepared Communities
- Mayor Tim Kabat, La Crosse, WI
- Rear Admiral Ann C. Phillips, United States Navy (retired)
- The Hon. John Conger, director, Center for Climate and Security
- Andrew Holland, chief operating officer, American Security Project
- The Hon. Sarah Bloom Raskin, former member of the Federal Reserve Board of Governors and Deputy Treasury Secretary
- Dr. Bob Litterman, founding partner and Risk Committee chairman, Kepos Capital; chair of the Climate-Related Market Risk Subcommittee, Commodity Futures Trading Commission
- Dave Burt, CEO and founder, DeltaTerra Capital
- Frédéric Samama, head of responsible investment, Amundi; co-author of “The green swan: Central banking and financial stability in the age of climate change”
- The Hon. Ernest Moniz, former U.S. Secretary of Energy; founder and CEO, Energy Futures Initiative
- Tom Conway, international president, United Steelworkers (USW)
- Vivian Satterfield, director of strategic partnerships, Verde
- Jeff Allen, executive director, Forth
- Brad Schallert, director of carbon market governance and aviation, World Wildlife Fund
- Rachel Muncrief, deputy director, International Council on Clean Transportation
Meetings:
Utility executives (June 2019)
- Alan Oshima, president and CEO, Hawaiian Electric
- Bill Johnson, president and CEO, PG&E
- Maria Pope, president and CEO, Portland General Electric
- Terry Sobolewski, president, National Grid Rhode Island
- Eric Olsen, vice president and general counsel, Great River Energy
- Richard Trumka, president, AFL-CIO
- Liz Shuler, secretary-treasurer, AFL-CIO
- Sean McGarvey, president, North America’s Building Trades Unions (NABTU)
- Cecil Roberts, president, United Mine Workers of America (UMWA)
- Terry O’Sullivan, general president, Laborers’ International Union of North America (LIUNA)
- Paul Shearon, international president, International Federation of Professional and Technical Engineers (IFPTE)
- Warren Fairley, international vice president for Southeast, International Brotherhood of Boilermakers
- Austin Keyser, director of political and legislative affairs, International Brotherhood of Electrical Workers (IBEW)
- Eddie Bautista, executive director, New York City Environmental Justice Alliance
- Elizabeth Yeampierre, executive director, UPROSE
- Stephan Edel, director, New York Working Families
- Maritza Silva-Farrell, executive director, ALIGN
- Lisa Tyson, executive director, Long Island Progressive Coalition
- Marc Weiss, former board member, Sierra Club
- Ambassador Luis Alfonso de Alba of Mexico, Special Envoy of the Secretary-General for the 2019 Climate Action Summit
- Alexandria Villaseñor, co-founder, U.S. Youth Climate Strike; founder, Earth Uprising
- Jonah Gottlieb, founding youth member, National Children’s Campaign
- Levi Draheim, Juliana v. United States plaintiff
- Kevin Patel, co-deputy partnerships director, Zero Hour
- Lana Weidgenant, co-deputy partnerships director, Zero Hour
- Rachel Lee, head coordinator, Zero Hour NYC
- Daphne Frias, global outreach team, Zero Hour
Financial industry executives (September 2019)
- Roger Ferguson, president and CEO, TIAA
- Douglas Peterson, president and CEO, S&P Global
- Raymond McDaniel, Jr., president and CEO, Moody’s
- Edward Skyler, executive vice president for global public affairs, Citi
Signatories to the Equitable and Just National Climate
Platform (October 2019)
- Dr. Cecilia Martinez, co-founder and executive director, Center for Earth, Energy, and Democracy
- Michele Roberts, national co-coordinator, Environmental Justice Health Alliance for Chemical Policy Reform
- Dr. Mildred McClain, executive director, The Harambee House
- The Hon. Harold Mitchell, Jr., executive director, ReGenesis Project; former state representative, South Carolina House of Representatives
- Richard Moore, co-coordinator, Los Jardines Institute
- Dr. Nicky Sheats, Esq., chairperson, New Jersey Environmental Justice Alliance; director, Center for the Urban Environment of the John S. Watson Institute for Public Policy at Thomas Edison State University
- Peggy Shepard, co-founder and executive director, WE ACT for Environmental Justice
- Jumana Vasi, senior advisor, Midwest Environmental Justice Network
- Dr. Beverly Wright, executive director, Deep South Center for Environmental Justice
- Sara Chieffo, vice president of government affairs, League of Conservation Voters
- Jessica Ennis, legislative director for climate and energy, Earthjustice
- Lindsay Harper, representative, U.S. Climate Action Network
- Cathleen Kelly, senior fellow for energy and environment, Center for American Progress
- Lissa Lynch, staff attorney, Natural Resources Defense Council
- Liz Perera, climate policy director, Sierra Club
- Frank Elderson, executive director of supervision, De Nederlandsche Bank; chairman, Network for Greening the Financial System (NGFS)
- Nathalie Aufauvre, director general of financial stability and operations, Banque de France
- Dr. Sabine Mauderer, member of the Executive Board, Deutsche Bundesbank
- Dr. Egil Matsen, deputy governor, Norges Bank
- Katie Wickman, sustainability manager, Advocate Aurora Health
- Brett Green, manager for remote operations, Ascension Medxcel
- Bob Biggio, senior vice president of facilities and support services, Boston Medical Center
- Jon Utech, senior director, Office for a Healthy Environment, Cleveland Clinic
- Rachelle Reyes Wenger, system vice president of public policy & advocacy engagement, Dignity Health
- Elizabeth Rogers, policy analyst, Gundersen Health System
- Charles Goyette, director of sustainability, Inova Health System
- Jean Garris Hand, senior utility & sustainability consultant, Providence St. Joseph Health
- Michael Waller, director of sustainability, Rochester Regional Health
- Jeanine Knapp, sustainability leader, ThedaCare
- John Leigh, director of sustainability, Virginia Mason Health System
- James Slevin, national president, Utility Workers Union of America (UWUA)
- Anna Fendley, director of regulatory and state policy, United Steelworkers (USW)
- Collin O’Mara, president and CEO, National Wildlife Federation
- Kathleen Rest, executive director, Union of Concerned Scientists
- Tiernan Sittenfeld, senior vice president of government affairs, League of Conservation Voters
- Jason Walsh, executive director, BlueGreen Alliance
- Evan Greenberg, chairman and CEO, Chubb
- Mike Mahaffey, chief strategy and corporate development officer, Nationwide
- Melissa Salton, chief risk officer, Munich Re
- Ian Branagan, group chief risk officer, RenaissanceRe
- Greg Long, pro surfer
- Leah Dawson, pro surfer
- Dr. Cliff Kapono, pro surfer, journalist, and chemist
- Pete Stauffer, environmental director, Surfrider Foundation
- Katie Day, staff scientist, Surfrider Foundation
- Stefanie Sekich-Quinn, coastal preservation manager, Surfrider Foundation
- Vipe Desai, co-founder, Business Alliance for Protecting the Pacific Coast (BAPPC)
- Chris Evans, Surf Industry Manufacturers Association (SIMA)
- Shea Perkins, senior manager for culture & impact marketing, Reef
- Madeline Wade, vice president, Signal Group (on behalf of REI)
Sunrise Movement Launches "Wide Awake" Campaign Confronting Politicians At Their Doorsteps
The youth climate activist collective known as the Sunrise Movement has begun protesting outside the homes of politicians they hold responsible for the “death economy” of rising climate, racial, and economic injustice. The “Wide Awake” campaign is inspired by the Wide Awakes, a militant youth abolitionist organization in the years leading into the Civil War.
We are Wide Awake. And, for the next hundred days, the architects of this death economy will be too.This is not just an uprising, it’s a mothafucking haunting. We will march to their homes at midnight so they understand that we are wide awake to their role in crafting this nightmare. When they try to dine at restaurants we’re forced to work at — despite the risk of COVID — because our unemployment is ending, we will not serve them. When they do nothing to stop federal agents from snatching us off the streets, when they force us to go back to school in unsafe conditions, when they do nothing to stop our democracy from crumbling, we will bang on their doors from dusk until dawn and make them hear us. We will make their lives a waking nightmare until they stand with us or give way to the power of the people and the vision we have for a new world.
“Wide Awake” actions so far include:
- August 20: U.S. Attorney General Bill Barr
- August 17: Sen. Thom Tillis (R-N.C.)
- August 17: Sen. Richard Burr (R-N.C.)
No justice, no sleep @SenatorBurr pic.twitter.com/OUjuEmt2Fx
— Sunrise Durham 🌅 (@SunriseDurham) August 17, 2020 - August 15: University of Michigan President Mark Schlissel
- August 14: Cleveland Mayor Frank Jackson
- August 14: Gov. Larry Hogan (R-Md.)
- August 14: Sen. Ted Cruz (R-Texas)
- August 13: Gov. Tim Walz (R-Minn.)
Sunrise Twin Cities is outside @GovTimWalz's house keeping him awake with pots, pans, drums, and chanting, demanding action to block the Enbridge Line 3 pipeline pic.twitter.com/9MZCWjnKav
— The Mac Weekly (@themacweekly) August 14, 2020 - August 11: Calif. State Senate Majority Leader Bob Hertzberg (D-San Fernando)
- July 21: D.C. Councilmember At-Large Anita Bonds
- July 17: Providence Mayor Jorge Elonza
- June 19: Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell (R-Ky.)