Hill Heat: Top Hurricane Scientist: ‘Katrina Would Not Have Been As Intense In 1980′Science Policy Legislation Actiontag:hillheat.org,2005:TypoTypo2020-08-27T12:19:06-04:00Brad Johnsonurn:uuid:9657df54-9db6-41bc-a454-29b5df9203122020-08-27T09:35:00-04:002020-08-27T12:19:06-04:00Top Hurricane Scientist: ‘Katrina Would Not Have Been As Intense In 1980′<p><i><a href='https://web.archive.org/web/20080906042932/http://thinkprogress.org/wonkroom/2008/09/05/global-boiling-katrina/'>Originally published</a> September 5, 2008 on the ThinkProgress Wonk Room.</i></p>
<p>Massachusetts Institute of Technology climatologist <a href="http://wind.mit.edu/~emanuel/home.html">Kerry Emanuel</a> says that he would be “surprised” if global warming “were not a big factor” in intensifying Hurricane Katrina’s destructive power. Katrina, the <a href="http://uk.reuters.com/article/homepageCrisis/idUKN02362040._CH_.242020080902">costliest</a> and <a href="http://weblogs.marylandweather.com/2007/05/katrina_costliest_3rd_deadlies.html">third deadliest</a> hurricane in United States history, intensified to Category Five strength, with peak <a href="http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/oa/climate/research/2005/katrina.html">sustained winds over 170 mph</a>, over extremely warm waters in the Gulf of Mexico before its <a href="http://ams.confex.com/ams/87ANNUAL/techprogram/paper_117370.htm">record storm surge</a> devastated the Gulf Coast.</p>
<p>Emanuel compared the meteorological conditions in which Hurricane Katrina developed in 2005 to the existing conditions twenty-five years earlier in 1980. Using his <a href="http://wind.mit.edu/~emanuel/pcmin/pclat/pclat.html">model of tropical storm potential intensity</a>, which uses at determining factors such as sea and air temperature and wind shear, he found that Katrina would have been significantly weaker twenty-five years earlier. When asked how to characterize his findings, Emanuel replied:</p>
<blockquote>I think it is correct to say that Katrina would not have been as intense in 1980. What part of that to attribute to global warming is tricky, but <strong>I would be surprised if it were not a big factor. </strong></blockquote>
<p><center><table><tr><td>
<a href='/files/katrina_1980_2005_pi.png'><img src="/files/katrina_1980_2005_pi_sm.PNG" alt="Katrina potential intensity chart"></a></td></tr>
<tr><td>
<a href="http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/wesley/reanalysis.html#intro" style="font-size:x-small">NCEP/NCAR Re-analysis</a> potential intensity for 1980 and 2005 (Emanuel, 2008)</td></tr></table></center></p>
<p>Dr. Emanuel, one of Time Magazine’s <a href="http://www.time.com/time/2006/time100/">100 Influential People of 2006</a>, is the author of <a href="http://wind.mit.edu/~emanuel/cvweb/cvweb.html">dozens of influential papers</a> on tropical meteorology and climatology, including the 2005 Nature paper, “<a href="http://www.nature.com/nature/journal/v436/n7051/abs/nature03906.html">Increasing destructiveness of tropical cyclones</a> over the past 30 years.” Dr. Emanuel has authored the popular science books <em><a href="http://www.amazon.com/Divine-Wind-History-Science-Hurricanes/dp/0195149416/adambrate-20">Divine Wind</a>: The History and Science of Hurricanes</em> and <em><a href="http://www.amazon.com/About-Climate-Change-Boston-Review/dp/0262050897/adambrate=20">What We Know About Climate Change</a></em>, and is profiled in ScienceProgress editor Chris Mooney’s book, <em><a href="http://www.amazon.com/Storm-World-Hurricanes-Politics-Warming/dp/0151012873/adambrate-20">Storm World</a>: Hurricanes, Politics, and the Battle Over Global Warming</em>.</p><p><i><a href='https://web.archive.org/web/20080906042932/http://thinkprogress.org/wonkroom/2008/09/05/global-boiling-katrina/'>Originally published</a> September 5, 2008 on the ThinkProgress Wonk Room.</i></p>
<p>Massachusetts Institute of Technology climatologist <a href="http://wind.mit.edu/~emanuel/home.html">Kerry Emanuel</a> says that he would be “surprised” if global warming “were not a big factor” in intensifying Hurricane Katrina’s destructive power. Katrina, the <a href="http://uk.reuters.com/article/homepageCrisis/idUKN02362040._CH_.242020080902">costliest</a> and <a href="http://weblogs.marylandweather.com/2007/05/katrina_costliest_3rd_deadlies.html">third deadliest</a> hurricane in United States history, intensified to Category Five strength, with peak <a href="http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/oa/climate/research/2005/katrina.html">sustained winds over 170 mph</a>, over extremely warm waters in the Gulf of Mexico before its <a href="http://ams.confex.com/ams/87ANNUAL/techprogram/paper_117370.htm">record storm surge</a> devastated the Gulf Coast.</p>
<p>Emanuel compared the meteorological conditions in which Hurricane Katrina developed in 2005 to the existing conditions twenty-five years earlier in 1980. Using his <a href="http://wind.mit.edu/~emanuel/pcmin/pclat/pclat.html">model of tropical storm potential intensity</a>, which uses at determining factors such as sea and air temperature and wind shear, he found that Katrina would have been significantly weaker twenty-five years earlier. When asked how to characterize his findings, Emanuel replied:</p>
<blockquote>I think it is correct to say that Katrina would not have been as intense in 1980. What part of that to attribute to global warming is tricky, but <strong>I would be surprised if it were not a big factor. </strong></blockquote>
<p><center><table><tr><td>
<a href='/files/katrina_1980_2005_pi.png'><img src="/files/katrina_1980_2005_pi_sm.PNG" alt="Katrina potential intensity chart"></a></td></tr>
<tr><td>
<a href="http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/wesley/reanalysis.html#intro" style="font-size:x-small">NCEP/NCAR Re-analysis</a> potential intensity for 1980 and 2005 (Emanuel, 2008)</td></tr></table></center></p>
<p>Dr. Emanuel, one of Time Magazine’s <a href="http://www.time.com/time/2006/time100/">100 Influential People of 2006</a>, is the author of <a href="http://wind.mit.edu/~emanuel/cvweb/cvweb.html">dozens of influential papers</a> on tropical meteorology and climatology, including the 2005 Nature paper, “<a href="http://www.nature.com/nature/journal/v436/n7051/abs/nature03906.html">Increasing destructiveness of tropical cyclones</a> over the past 30 years.” Dr. Emanuel has authored the popular science books <em><a href="http://www.amazon.com/Divine-Wind-History-Science-Hurricanes/dp/0195149416/adambrate-20">Divine Wind</a>: The History and Science of Hurricanes</em> and <em><a href="http://www.amazon.com/About-Climate-Change-Boston-Review/dp/0262050897/adambrate=20">What We Know About Climate Change</a></em>, and is profiled in ScienceProgress editor Chris Mooney’s book, <em><a href="http://www.amazon.com/Storm-World-Hurricanes-Politics-Warming/dp/0151012873/adambrate-20">Storm World</a>: Hurricanes, Politics, and the Battle Over Global Warming</em>.</p>